How Kamala Harris Could Win Back Muslim Voters

Kamala Harris faces the challenge of reconnecting with Muslim voters, a key demographic that is showing signs of drifting away from the Democrats, according to a new report.
Since 2004, American Muslim voters, 66 percent of whom identify as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, according to the Pew Research Center, have overwhelmingly supported a Democratic candidate for president. They helped President Joe Biden secure a close victory in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia in 2020, where he got an average of 65 percent of the Muslim vote.
But according to a report published by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding this month, Joe Biden has lost significant support among Muslim voters. It shows that only 12 percent of Muslims planned to vote for Biden before he exited the race, compared with 65 percent of Muslims who voted for him in 2020.
Of those who voted for Biden in 2020 but said they wouldn’t vote for him again in 2024, 67 percent said that the war in Gaza is a top priority. Since the beginning of the war—in which more than 40,000 Palestinians have died, according to Gaza health officials—Biden has faced criticism for failing to condemn the Israeli government strongly enough, as well as for continuing to provide military aid to the country.
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7, 2023, the U.S. passed legislation granting Israel at least $12.5 billion in military aid. This included $3.8 billion from a bill approved in March 2024, and an additional $8.7 billion from a supplemental appropriations act passed in April 2024.
The report indicates that most Muslim voters, across party lines, favor reducing military aid to Israel. This stance is strongly supported by Muslim swing voters (88 percent), Biden supporters (80 percent), and Trump supporters (75 percent), all of whom consider this policy a significant factor in deciding their vote.
Meanwhile, the report also shows that the majority of Muslim voters, regardless of their chosen candidate for 2024, say a permanent ceasefire in Gaza would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. This includes 89 percent of those who had planned to vote for Biden, 72 percent of those who chose Trump and 91 percent of “swing voters.”
The Biden administration has been heavily involved in negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza, with the president publicly calling for an end to the war, but negotiations have stalled, according to CNN, with senior U.S. officials having determined there is currently no political will on either side to end the conflict.
Repeated delays to the negotiation process, as well as escalating tensions between the Israeli military, Hezbollah and Hamas, make it highly unlikely that Israel and Gaza will see a ceasefire deal before the end of Biden’s presidency.
For Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, this could have a knock on effect at the polls, experts have told Newsweek.
As vice president, Harris has been largely constrained from presenting a markedly different approach to Middle East policy or U.S.-Israel relations without risking the appearance of undermining President Biden, telling CNN in an interview last month that she would not approach the Israel-Hamas war differently to her boss.
“Let me be very clear, I’m unequivocal and unwavering in my commitment to Israel’s defense and its ability to defend itself, and that’s not going to change,” Harris said.
Experts have noted that such constraints could pose a challenge for Harris, particularly in Michigan, a key swing state with a large Arab-American population. Biden won the state by 1.8 points in 2020, which equates to around 155,000 votes, and while most polls indicate Harris has a slight advantage of around 2 points, with more than more than 200,000 Muslim voters in Michigan, Arab-Americans could swing things either way.
“Any candidate wishing to win over Muslim voters would do well to distance themselves from Biden’s Gaza policy in favor of one that secures a permanent ceasefire and reduces military aid to Israel,” Erum Ikramullah, senior research project manager at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, told Newsweek.
Youssef Chouhoud, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University, agreed, telling Newsweek that while Biden’s unpopularity among American Muslims is clear, Harris’ ability to secure their votes may depend less on his Gaza record and more on whether she distances herself from the administration’s stance on Israel.
“Joe Biden is certainly very unpopular with American Muslims, but his record when it comes to the war in Gaza is not necessarily going to dictate whether or not Kamala Harris can count on the Muslim and Arab vote in November,” he said.
“Instead, Muslims, Arabs, and many other voters of conscience are looking to see whether or not Harris is going to stray from the current administration’s unwillingness to even acknowledge Israel’s numerous, well-documented human rights violations.
“In addition, these voters want to see a meaningful change in policy, such as the freezing of military aid to Israel or at minimum the conditioning of current and future aid packages on Israel abiding by international human rights law.”
He added that Harris’ reluctance to adopt this position has led many Muslim Americans to feel that she has not been firm enough in condemning Israel’s attacks on Palestinians.
Both Ikramullah and Chouhoud went on the cite studies, including the report by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, highlighting record levels of Muslim voter support for third-party candidates this year. According to the ISPU, nearly 27 percent of Muslim voters plan to back a third-party candidate in November.
“This suggests that Harris has not earned back votes that Biden may have lost,” Ikramullah said. “Our research indicates that Muslim voters are not simply looking for a different candidate; rather they are looking for a change in policy positions. A vast majority of Muslim votes in swing states say a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and reduction in military aid to Israel would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. Muslims voters are policy voters, not partisan voters.”
Amid Harris’ stance on the Israel-Gaza war, the American Muslim 2024 Election Task Force, an umbrella group that consists of a number of prominent Muslim organizations, including the political arms of Americans for Justice in Palestine (AJP), CAIR and the U.S. Council of Muslim Organizations, released a statement this month urging Muslim voters to vote for a third party candidate.
“After extensive consultation, discussion, and deliberation, the American Muslim 2024 Election Task Force has decided to encourage American Muslims to vote for any presidential candidate of their choosing who supports a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a U.S. arms embargo on the Israeli government, such as candidates Dr Jill Stein, Dr Cornel West or Chase Oliver,” read the statement, obtained by Middle East Eye.
An August poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that Green Party candidate Jill Stein is tied with Kamala Harris among Muslim voters. Another CAIR poll from September found Stein leading among all presidential candidates amongst Muslim voters in a number of swing states—Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Stein, who is polling at around 1 percent nationally, has referred to the war as a genocide against Palestinians perpetrated by Israel and said she would end the war in her first day of office. She has also called for an end to U.S military aid to Israel.
Meanwhile, both West and Oliver have referred to the conflict as “genocide” and backed a ceasefire, as well as an arms embargo on Israel.
Third-party candidates have “made clear that they value Arab and Muslim American voters,” Chouhoud said. “That is far more than can be said about the Democratic Party or its presidential candidate.”
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign via email for comment.